AKF# 022 – Will there be a World War III?
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AKF# 022 – Will there be a World War III?
This week, @antoniosanciolo and @larrykingundead answer the above question from @Grumpy_Pete78
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I think Antonio’s assessment of the finance aspect is key to potential WW3 scenarios. Everyone is in debt to everyone else. The debt can never be paid off to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of dollars. The global financial picture is a house of cards. If there is a financial ‘Franz Ferdinand’ black swan moment that causes another global financial meltdown, you could see massive civil unrest in any number of places. You mention several ‘black swan’ scenarios. Massive internet attack/shutdown would be a game changing event. Toppling of a government in a key area would be another.
Couple that with any of several ambitious or unstable governments who may see opportunity in such unrest, and the situation could easily spiral out of control. There are many possible paradigm shifts in an economic meltdown, where war becomes more attractive than attempts to recover payments. If there is a complete collapse of the dollar as a global reserve currency (for example), many nations will see their dollar holdings as less than worthless and may no longer feel beholden to US approval or even fear its threats.
If WW3 arrives it will likely unfold in a rapid series of events that happen with such speed that responding to them or containing them will be impossible. We also live in a world where the most of the global leadership does not remember WW2 as personal history (most leaders are Baby Boomer aged born after WW2 ended). It only exists as an event of pure history. This tends to make these leaders less wary of the Total War of a World War, as they have not personally experienced such a situation.
The nuclear component is certainly scarier than any other component of a WW3 scenario. Will leadership be rational enough to avoid a nuclear exchange, and keep things as conventional as possible? Will some nation in a losing and desperate situation decide to pull out all the stops in an effort to win and push the button… or just punish the world and take anybody and everybody down with it?
Scary stuff.
All very valid points. I had not factored in, as you pointed out, the age of the leader class today being completely removed from any position of experience with war. The relegation of events as “mere history” is chilling. It begs the quote by Santayana; “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”
With Russia actively bombing in Syria, I’m wondering if WW3 didn’t start yesterday…
With surprisingly minimal mainstream coverage of the matter to date, I’m genuinely concerned.
The most alarming thing however is that Putin’s claims for supporting al-Assad seem to actually make sense.
Keeping Assad in power is probably the best option for stability for Syria and for containing IS. The US seems hellbent on removing him, which is a recipe for continued chaos. There aren’t many rational choices being made and Turkey’s recent moves seem deliberately provocative.
Yep. Two months on and this makes more sense than ever. Assad may be tyrannical but he is a tyrant that can govern the ungovernable.